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Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is an advanced analytical tool for assessing and forecasting economic development at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. By combining a comprehensive global input-output database with specialized analytical software, GTAP enables the rapid evaluation of the effects of government economic policies on GDP growth, prices, employment, production of goods and services (both economy-wide and by sector), tax revenues, foreign trade, and other key macroeconomic indicators over the medium term.

GTAP analysis answers the fundamental question: what will be the economic consequences of a specific policy intervention affecting market equilibrium, particularly in the field of international trade—for example, changes in import tariffs, export subsidies, customs procedures, or improvements to trade-related transport and logistics infrastructure.

Today, GTAP is one of the principal analytical tools used by governments and international organizations worldwide for the quantitative assessment of trade policy changes. It has become an internationally recognized standard for applied international economic analysis. GTAP modelling has supported major policy decisions, including the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), China’s accession to the WTO, and assessments of the potential impacts of mega-regional initiatives such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The model is routinely used by experts from the WTO, the World Bank, and the Government of the United States.

The GTAP framework enables quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of import tariffs, tariff-rate quotas, import restrictions, export subsidies, and dumping practices in international trade. It is also widely applied in evaluating the effectiveness of anti-dumping, safeguard, and countervailing measures. One of GTAP’s major advantages is its ability to isolate and quantify the impact of individual policy factors on market equilibrium, thereby providing robust evidence of causal relationships between economic phenomena—for example, between dumping practices and injury to domestic producers.

For this reason, GTAP modelling is widely used as an analytical evidence base in WTO trade remedy investigations and international trade disputes.

The success of GTAP is founded on international cooperation in developing a comprehensive global economic database. This database forms the core of the GTAP system and also supports numerous other applied economic models. It consists of social accounting matrices and elasticity parameters describing interactions among economic agents. In addition to input-output tables and trade and commodity tax data, the database includes information on income taxes, savings, capital stocks, depreciation, population, and numerous other macroeconomic indicators for individual countries and regions.

The macroeconomic data incorporated into GTAP are compiled from national statistical agencies and research institutions participating in the project (more than 15,000 researchers from over 170 countries), as well as from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. International trade statistics are primarily based on the United Nations COMTRADE database and are further harmonized using data from the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), including adjustments for re-exports. Additional datasets are provided by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

As a result, GTAP has become one of the foundations of modern economic policy analysis related to international trade. Continuous international collaboration in developing both the global database and the analytical software enables researchers to conduct timely, comprehensive, and highly detailed assessments of medium-term economic development prospects while significantly improving the quality and reliability of economic analysis.

The State Research Institute for Informatization and Economic Modeling is the exclusive license holder in Ukraine for the latest GTAP database and software release (May 2023 edition), enabling economic modelling for 141 countries and 19 aggregated world regions across 65 economic sectors.

Since 2017, researchers of the Institute have continuously completed certified professional training in economic and mathematical modelling and the practical application of GTAP databases and software through courses delivered by the project developers at the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University (USA).

The GTAP model has been applied in numerous research projects carried out by the Institute, including:

  • Operation of the Export Credit Agency of Ukraine under Martial Law (State Registration No. 0124U002990);

  • Local Content Requirements in Public Procurement as a Tool for Industrial Development in Ukraine (0124U002988);

  • Countering Disinformation Aimed at Hindering Ukraine’s Integration into the European Union (Economic Dimension) (0122U201682);

  • Strategic Priorities for Deepening Ukraine’s Trade and Economic Relations with the European Union under the Association Agreement (0120U104933);

  • Development of a Raw Material Supply Mechanism for Ukraine’s Wood Processing Industry (0118U006166);

  • Analysis of State Policy to Eliminate Raw Material Shortages in Ukraine’s Metallurgical Industry (0118U003738);

  • Concept for the Establishment and Development of the “INNOVATION-FORPOST” Industrial Park in Dnipro (0117U006762);

  • State Procurement as an Instrument for Industrial Development in Ukraine (0117U003454);

  • Assessment of the Prospects for Maintaining Ukraine’s €30 per Ton Export Duty on Ferrous Scrap Metal (0117U003453);

  • Mechanisms for the Development of Industrial Clusters in Ukraine (0117U003452);

  • Assessment of the economic impact of the Law of Ukraine “On Measures to Stabilize Ukraine’s Balance of Payments in Accordance with Article XII of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994” (Law No. 73-VIII of 28 December 2014), introducing an additional import surcharge of 10% on agricultural and food products and 5% on other imported goods;

  • Assessment of the long-term impact of the Law of Ukraine introducing a ten-year moratorium on the export of unprocessed timber (Law No. 325-VIII of 9 April 2015) on the forestry, wood-processing industry, and the Ukrainian economy;

  • Identification of major trade barriers limiting the access of Ukrainian producers to international markets and assessment of the economic benefits of their removal for export potential and national welfare;

  • Assessment of regional economic development prospects within OECD countries resulting from improvements in transport and logistics infrastructure supporting international trade;

  • Assessment of the prospects for developing Ukraine’s automotive industry and overall economic welfare under the deregulation of foreign trade procedures for motor vehicles;

  • Assessment of the impact of tariff liberalization in bilateral trade of agricultural and food products between Ukraine and the European Union under Annex I-A of the Association Agreement on the development of Ukraine’s agricultural sector and the national economy;

  • Assessment of Ukraine’s economic development prospects under expanded trade and investment cooperation with the People’s Republic of China in manufacturing and infrastructure development.